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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2011

Towards zero variance estimators for rare event probabilities

Résumé

Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approximations of conditional densities. This is achieved for events E_{n}:=(f(X₁)+...+f(X_{n}))∈A_{n} where the summands are i.i.d. and E_{n} is a large or moderate deviation event. The approximation of the conditional density of the real r.v's X_{i} 's , for 1≤i≤k_{n} with repect to E_{n} on long runs, when k_{n}/n→1, is handled. The maximal value of k compatible with a given accuracy is discussed; algorithms and simulated results are presented.

Domaines

Calcul [stat.CO]
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Dates et versions

hal-00613346 , version 1 (04-08-2011)
hal-00613346 , version 2 (03-02-2012)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-00613346 , version 1

Citer

Michel Broniatowski, Virgile Caron. Towards zero variance estimators for rare event probabilities. 2011. ⟨hal-00613346v1⟩
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